Aligning the Global Plastics Treaty with <1.5

Investigating a 40×40 plastic reduction target and its impact on plastics carbon reduction pathways

This study aims to model scenarios for how the global economy might respond to the proposed “40×40” target in the context of negotiations for a new International Legally Binding Instrument (ILBI) to end plastic pollution. It evaluates the amount of primary material that needs to be removed and its climate impact in relation to a 1.5°C-aligned carbon budget for plastics. The study aims to demonstrates whether the global reduction target, if agreed by Member States, can align the ILBI with climate goals and support the transition to a safer, more sustainable circular economy for plastics. Previous modelling efforts have primarily focused on policy packages to ‘end’ plastic pollution, emphasising demand-side measures across the lifecycle. However, less attention has been given to the climate aspect, a crucial pillar for any new Multilateral Environmental Agreement, especially in the context of the triple planetary crisis.